MBA Predicts Slight Downturn in 2018 Origination Volume

October 31, 2017

Mortgage origination volume is expected to decrease to $1.6 trillion in 2018, down from 1.7 trillion in 2017, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The MBA forecasts $1.2 trillion in purchase mortgage originations during 2018, a 7.3 percent increase from 2017. In contrast, MBA anticipates refinance originations will decrease by 28.3 percent from 2017, to approximately $430 billion.

For 2019, MBA predicts total originations to rebound to $1.64 trillion, with purchase originations of $1.24 trillion and refinance originations of $395 billion.

"We are projecting that home purchase originations will increase at a faster clip in 2018, nearly double the rate that they increased in 2017,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's chief economist and senior vice president for research and industry technology. “The housing market has been hamstrung by insufficient supply, with inventories of homes remarkably low given the home price growth we have experienced. The job market remains strong, demographic trends are quite favorable, mortgage credit is becoming more available to qualified borrowers, and home prices should continue to rise. All the pieces are in place for stronger growth in 2018 and beyond.”

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