Economics
Here's What the Fed's 'Workhorse' Recession Model Is Telling Us About the U.S. Economy
The year 2016 is not 2008, according to the U.S. yield curve.
Are Markets Pessimistic Over Fed Rate Hikes?
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Global equities have started 2016 by falling within points of a bear market, and a number of market participants are now asking whether this is just a blip on the way higher or the start of something worse—such as the onset of an economic downturn in the U.S.
Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, is taking the optimistic route by drawing attention to a certain economic model that currently puts the chance of an imminent contraction in the single digits. The Federal Reserve's so-called probit model looks at the difference between 10-year and three-month U.S. Treasury rates to gauge the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months.